Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Djibouti
  • Algeria
  • South Africa
  • Congo (Kinshasa)
  • Egypt
  • Gabon
  • Cabo Verde
  • Equatorial Guinea
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Niger
  • Morocco
  • Chad

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,054$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(113 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(0.299 \times 10^{0.036t}\) (doubling rate \(8.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 56.0)}}\) (asimptote \(56.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,343$ on 2020-06-04

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,831$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(831 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,189.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 58.6)}}\) (asimptote \(12,189.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $681$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(140 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{609.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(609.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,853$ on 2020-06-04

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $40,792$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(464 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{436,970.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 120.7)}}\) (asimptote \(436,970.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $848$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(19 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,259.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 101.2)}}\) (asimptote \(10,259.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,633$ on 2020-06-04

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,644$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(59.6 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,946.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 96.5)}}\) (asimptote \(14,946.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $78$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(9.64 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 59.9)}}\) (asimptote \(113.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,071$ on 2020-06-04

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,767$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(504 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{354,822.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 129.7)}}\) (asimptote \(354,822.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,126$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(83.9 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,739.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 67.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,739.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,885$ on 2020-06-04

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,955$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(35.1 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,665.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 64.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,665.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(0.645 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 66.9)}}\) (asimptote \(28.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,116$ on 2020-06-04

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $502$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(24.7 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{495.3}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(495.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5$ on 2020-06-04

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $258$ on 2020-06-04

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,306$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(31.2 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,918.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 67.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,918.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.82 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 24.2)}}\) (asimptote \(13.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,094$ on 2020-06-04

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Niger recovered 93%
Morocco recovered 82%
Chad recovered 68%
Algeria recovered 10%

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $963$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(376 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{918.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 15.6)}}\) (asimptote \(918.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(12.2 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{72.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(72.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38$ on 2020-06-04

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,003$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,157.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(8,157.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $208$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(70.2 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{196.1}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 20.8)}}\) (asimptote \(196.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $600$ on 2020-06-04

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $828$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(64.2 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{856.4}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 33.8)}}\) (asimptote \(856.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $66$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(18.6 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{65.2}{1 + 10^{-0.093 (t - 13.3)}}\) (asimptote \(65.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $129$ on 2020-06-04